Fitch Affirms Qatar’s Sovereign Rating at ‘AA’, Forecasting Strong Economic Growth in 2027 and 2028

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Qatar’s long-term sovereign credit rating at “AA”, reflecting its confidence in the strength and resilience of the Qatari economy amid regional challenges.

The agency said risks surrounding liquefied natural gas facilities have declined, supporting Qatar’s economic outlook. It expects a strong recovery as gas exports resume and additional production from the North Field expansion comes online. Fitch also expects economic growth to reach double-digit rates in 2028, following a significant increase in production capacity from 2027.

Fitch forecasts that Qatar’s fiscal balance will return to surplus in 2027, with the surplus widening the following year, supported by the start-up of the Golden Pass LNG facility in the United States. The agency also highlighted the resilience of Qatar’s banking sector despite challenging regional conditions.

According to Fitch, Qatar benefits from one of the world’s highest levels of per-capita income and substantial sovereign assets. Net sovereign assets are expected to reach around 254.2% of GDP by the end of 2026, while Qatar is expected to remain a net external creditor. The country also maintains strong governance indicators and has gone more than 20 years without a debt restructuring.

QatarEnergy is currently expanding its LNG production capacity through the North Field projects. The North Field East project is expected to raise annual LNG production from 77 million tonnes to 110 million tonnes, while the North Field South project will further increase capacity to 126 million tonnes per year.

Meanwhile, the Golden Pass LNG project, jointly owned by QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil, has reached a key milestone with the first LNG production from its first of three production trains, which together have a capacity of 18 million tonnes per year.

In May, S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s also affirmed Qatar’s sovereign ratings at “AA” and “Aa2”, respectively, with stable outlooks, further underscoring the country’s strong financial position.